LEXINGTON, Ky. — Harry Potter is going to die. Eleven-year-old Jake Ryan is certain.

When author J.K. Rowling announced last month that two main characters would be killed in the seventh and final installment of her wildly popular Harry Potter series, the fervent speculation began.

The books, which have sold an estimated 30 million copies worldwide, have become a cultural phenomenon, sparking a dialogue among fans that spans the globe.

Like thousands of other avid Potter aficionados, Jake is convinced Harry won't make it to the last page. It's a hypothesis with some weight behind it because what would be more poignant than having the hero of the story die?

In the past year, the Lexington fifth-grader has read all six books in the Potter series. He even prefers the books to their film counterparts and can't wait for the seventh book to hit shelves next year.

His favorite character is Harry's best friend, Ron Weasley, but he won't be nearly as upset if Ron gets the Avada Kedavra killing curse.

Because he's the hero of the story, Jake said, Harry's death would really upset him, more so than those of Cedric Diggory and Albus Dumbledore in books four and six, respectively.

But it's not just Harry's fate Jake is worried about.

If the evil Lord Voldemort regains his power in the final book, Jake will be crushed.

Matthew Neal, 11, a sixth-grader, thinks Harry's as good as dead, too.

Matthew hasn't read the last two books, but he's got the first four under his belt - ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone,'' ``Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets,'' ``Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban'' and ``Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire'' - and he already has a running list of possibilities.

"Harry," he said decisively. "Dumbledore, maybe. Or Voldemort."

"No way - Dumbledore died in the last book," Jake said.

"Oh," Matthew replied. "Well, maybe they'll bring him back and kill him again."

Josh Phillips, 9, has his own suspicions. He thinks the last book will see Draco Malfoy and Voldemort's demise.

Josh's older brother Jordan Phillips, a fifth-grader, has Voldemort pegged to die, too.

Josh is more ambivalent about Harry's uncertain future.

If the title character is killed, "I'll be OK," he said thoughtfully. "But my mom's gonna cry."

Josh raises a good point: The series appeals to a wide audience, from children to adults.

So when the final book comes out - the date has yet to be disclosed, but the Internet is rife with rumors of a July 7, 2007, release - how will readers of all ages be affected?

The final book will have a significant impact on children and adults, said Jim Clark, who has a doctorate in clinical social work. Clark, 47, has three daughters, ages 9, 11 and 13. All three are Potter fans.

"This is an interesting problem because (Rowling) has written a series in which many children and adults have come to trust her," Clark said.

Clark doesn't think Rowling's announcement is a cheap marketing ploy - he thinks the author is well aware of her audience and truly cares about her readers. He sees last month's announcement as a warning, not a teaser.

"This will be hard," he said of the seventh book. "It's going to be an intense experience. And it's a warning to us, as adults, that we'll have to help kids work through this."

Clark compared the situation to E.B. White's classic "Charlotte's Web." White drew criticism because the titular character, Charlotte the spider, died.

"White made the book a good developmental experience for children because he described life's realities and the cycle of nature," Clark said. "It's clear that the book was reality-based, and he thought children could handle it.

"Children have to come to grips with death," he said. "The benefit of reading is that it's a place for rehearsal, a place for working through sadness."

Clark noted that even with the deaths of two main characters, Rowling's last Potter book can be upsetting without being traumatic for readers.

And, he said, adults often underestimate the resilience of children and their willingness to face and deal with reality.

"In some cases, I think we're going to see children comforting adults," he said.