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Written by Casey Laughman, asap   
Sunday, 27 August 2006

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It's just about that time -- time for tailgates, cheerleaders and singing a drunken version of the fight song at the top of your lungs. Time for chili dogs at the Varsity, dotting the "I" at Ohio State and doing the Gator chomp in Gainesville. Time for charging the field after a big win, drowning your sorrows after a tough loss and firmly believing that this year is the one that gives you bragging rights.

Yep, it's college football time, and expect a wild ride -- this year is as wide-open as it's been in a long time.

Every team has weaknesses and none stand out above the rest, so don't be surprised if by the time it's all sorted out, we end up with Utah versus South Carolina in the Fiesta Bowl for the national championship.

So pull up a chair, football fans, asap is going to break down the AP Top 25 and explain why Arizona State is suddenly living in a land of confusion, why the SEC might be too good for its own good and why Notre Dame might actually be overrated.

___

No. 25: TEXAS TECH (9-3 in 2005)

STRENGTH: Offense, and lots of it. Head coach/passing game guru Mike Leach and the Red Raiders ring up points like a sugar-amped 15-year-old playing Dance Dance Revolution. Tech averaged almost 40 points per game last year and scored 56 or more five times.

WEAKNESS: They don't score like that against anybody that's any good. Dropping 80 on Sam Houston State is great, but losing 52-17 to Texas and 13-10 to Alabama doesn't bode well for Tech's struggle to climb to the next level.

OUTLOOK: Though there's plenty of offensive talent back and Leach's schemes always make the Red Raiders dangerous, their chances to do well in the Big 12 will depend on how well their young quarterbacks adjust. Unless redshirt sophomore Graham Harrell (47 career pass attempts) and redshirt freshman Chris Todd adjust quickly, it could be a rebuilding year in Lubbock.

___

No. 24: ARIZONA STATE (7-5)

STRENGTH: A week ago, depth at quarterback. The Sun Devils were the only team to have two quarterbacks each throw for 2,000 yards last season. Senior Sam Keller started the season and threw for 2,165 yards and 20 touchdowns in seven games before a hand injury sidelined him for the season. Freshman Rudy Carpenter took over, threw for 2,273 yards and 17 touchdowns, and led the nation in passing efficiency.

WEAKNESS: A downright weird start to the season. Keller was named the starter, then coach Dirk Koetter changed his mind and made Carpenter the starter. Keller is transferring to Nebraska.

OUTLOOK: There's plenty of talent on offense, even without Keller, but the QB flip-flop is the sort of thing that could have a lasting impact -- especially if Carpenter struggles.

___

No. 23: TENNESSEE (5-6)

STRENGTH: RB Arian Foster closed the year with five straight 100-yard games, including 223 against Vanderbilt. He was one of the lone bright spots in a difficult season in Knoxville.

WEAKNESS: It's time for QB Erik Ainge to prove the hype isn't just that. After a decent freshman season, he threw seven interceptions in 145 attempts last year and ended up sharing time with Rick Clausen.

OUTLOOK: It's not that the Vols don't have talent, but a disastrous season last year left people scratching their heads. Is this the team that beat LSU, or the one that lost to Florida, Alabama (by a score of 6-3) and Vanderbilt (yes, Vanderbilt!). Coach Phil Fulmer still has .776 winning percentage and a national championship ring, but between last year's struggles on the field and a string of embarrassing off-the-field incidents, his seat is feeling mighty warm.

___

No. 22: TEXAS CHRISTIAN (11-1)

STRENGTH: Seven starters return from last year's swarming defense, which forced 40 turnovers and allowed 18.5 points per game. Throw out a 51-50 shootout win over BYU and the Horned Frogs allowed 15.7 points per game.

WEAKNESS: Four new starters on the offensive line. TCU has a talented group of running backs -- senior Robert Merrill and sophomore Robert Brown combined for almost 1,700 yards last year -- but they need the big fellas up front to give them room to operate.

OUTLOOK: After sucker-punching Oklahoma in Norman last year, TCU won't sneak up on anybody this year. But with their toughest non-conference game being against No. 25 Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs may just end up in a BCS bowl if they take care of their conference games.

___

No. 21: OREGON (10-2)

STRENGTH: The entire starting offensive line is back, providing experience up front for a team that lost QB Kellen Clemens, RB Terrence Whitehead and three of the top four receivers.

WEAKNESS: Lack of experience on offense. QBs Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf -- yep, Ryan's younger brother -- got some work after Clemens missed the last four games of 2005, but they're still raw, as are the rest of the skill players. Also, no team in the country has uglier uniforms _ think Mad Max meets RuPaul.

OUTLOOK: No team with uniforms this ugly deserves to win more than six games. A brutal schedule -- No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 24 Arizona St. and No. 9 California in consecutive weeks, No. 6 USC later in the year -- will make it tough for the Ducks to make a serious charge at the Pac-10 title.

___

No. 20: NEBRASKA (8-4)

STRENGTH: Maybe for the first time in history, the passing game. Cornhusker fans had to think there were UFOs flying around Lincoln after seeing QB Zac Taylor complete 237-of-530 passes for 2,653 yards and 19 touchdowns. How odd was it? The Cornhuskers attempted 514 passes in 2003 and 2004 -- combined.

WEAKNESS: Just saying this will probably trigger a plague of locusts, but the running game. Nebraska averaged 2.7 yards per carry and 96 yards per game -- the first time in 60 years Nebraska failed to average 100 yards per game.

OUTLOOK: The Cornhuskers are still undergoing a transition, as coach Bill Callahan enters the third year of bringing a passing offense to a school that used to consider receivers as important as a backup water boy. Nebraska will most likely continue to struggle to find an offensive identity.

___

No. 19: PENN STATE (11-1)

STRENGTH: Three unbelievably talented sophomores. WRs Derrick Williams and Deon Butler and CB Jordan King, who might see time at wide receiver as well, gave the Lions a spark last season with their speed and athleticism, two things that had been missing in recent years. Teams will be hard-pressed to figure out how to stop all of them, particularly with Penn State lining up Williams all over the place.

WEAKNESS: Finding someone to get the ball to Williams and Butler. Junior QB Anthony Morelli, who's attempted 33 career passes, was all-everything coming out of high school, but so was Ron Powlus, who didn't live up to the hype. Penn State may have to lean on senior RB Tony Hunt early until Morelli gets his feet under him.

OUTLOOK: The big question in State College is which is the aberration: last year's 11-win season or the four years before when the Nittany Lions won five, nine, three and four games. With players like Williams, Butler, King and LB Paul Posluszny, the Lions could be surprisingly good, but they'll get two early tests against No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 1 Ohio State in the first four weeks.

___

No. 18: CLEMSON (8-4)

STRENGTH: A strong running game. Sophomore James Davis rushed for 879 yards and nine touchdowns last season and senior Reggie Merriweather added 715 yards and seven touchdowns. Clemson rushed for more than 150 yards per game last year and all five starters on the offensive line return.

WEAKNESS: Replacing QB Charlie Whitehurst. He was one of those guys who seemed like he played college ball until he was 30 before finally running out of eligibility. Taking over will be senior Will Proctor, who's attempted 34 career passes and threw three straight interceptions in Clemson's spring game. Yikes!

OUTLOOK: Proctor won two games last year when Whitehurst was injured, but his lack of experience could make things dicey. Davis is a stud and the Tigers may have to lean pretty heavily on him to be a factor in the ACC.

___

No. 17: VIRGINIA TECH (11-2)

STRENGTH: Defense and special teams, as always. Since Frank Beamer took over, the Hokies have made a habit of stopping opponents, then breaking the game open with a blocked kick or a big return. Tech allowed 248 yards and 13 points per game last year.

WEAKNESS: Quarterback. Marcus Vick is gone, which might not be that bad of a thing. Though incredibly talented, Vick couldn't keep out of trouble with the law, stomped on Louisville's Elvis Dumervil in the Gator Bowl and was subsequently kicked off the team before signing as an undrafted free agent with the Miami Dolphins.

OUTLOOK: Sophomore Sean Glennon was named the starting QB and with a strong defense and running game, he'll have time to settle in before the schedule gets tough. But with consecutive games against No. 18 Clemson and No. 12 Miami waiting, he'll have to do more than just hand it off and not screw up. If Tech wins those two, another trip to the ACC championship game is likely.

___

No. 16: IOWA (7-5)

STRENGTH: QB Drew Tate and RB Albert Young lead an offense that was too good last year to lose five games. Tate is getting some buzz as a Heisman contender and Young rushed for 1,300 yards.

WEAKNESS: Lack of experience at receiver. Iowa's returning receivers have combined for 42 passes in their college careers -- five fewer than Scott Chandler caught by himself last season.

OUTLOOK: With a potentially explosive offensive, the Hawkeyes should breeze through a cake schedule for the first four games. But the key to the season will likely be the fifth game: at night against No. 1 Ohio State. Iowa went into Columbus last year and managed 137 total yards, including minus-9 rushing, in a 31-6 loss. Get by OSU this time and Iowa should have a good chance at a BCS game, with No. 14 Michigan being the toughest team left on the schedule.

___

No. 15: GEORGIA (10-3)

STRENGTH: About 87 running backs that could start for most other teams in the country. Thomas Brown, Danny Ware and Kregg Lumpkin each averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry last year. Brown will be the lead Dawg, as it were, but Ware and Lumpkin are nice insurance policies.

WEAKNESS: QB D.J. Shockley is gone, taking with him almost 3,000 yards of total offense. In steps Joe Tereshinski III, who played some last year when Shockley was hurt. Though not nearly as mobile as Shockley, Tereshinski gave the Bulldogs an added dimension by being able to make something happen on the ground.

OUTLOOK: This team is good -- potentially real good, if Tereshinski plays well. But the biggest problem is that the SEC is loaded, with four teams in the top 15 and probably six teams that could win the conference. Georgia's season will be determined by the last four weeks -- No. 7 Florida, at Kentucky, at No. 4 Auburn and Georgia Tech. That's brutal.

___

No. 14: MICHIGAN (7-5)

STRENGTH: Offensive skill players. QB Chad Henne threw for 2,500 yards and 23 touchdowns, RB Mike Hart averaged 4.4 yards per carry in eight games and WR Jason Avant had a 1,000-yard receiving season. Sophomore WR Mario Manningham averaged 16 yards per catch and caught the touchdown that gave Penn State its only loss last year. Oh yeah, there's also Steve Breaston, a do-everything wide receiver who's also one of the most dangerous return men in the country.

WEAKNESS: It's not talent -- there's plenty there. But what's had the heat swirling around coach Lloyd Carr is what the Wolverines have done with it. Michigan has won at least seven games -- 10 twice -- each of the past five seasons, which would be cause for a parade at some schools. The problem is that the Wolverines were 1-4 against Ohio State and 1-4 in bowl games in that same span.

OUTLOOK: Carr's biggest problem will be keeping the players from getting beaten down by a schedule that includes games at No. 2 Notre Dame and at No. 19 Penn State, followed by No. 16 Iowa at home and at No. 1 Ohio State to close the season. Winning two of those -- especially if one is Ohio State -- might be enough take some of the heat off Carr.

___

No. 13: LOUISVILLE (9-3)

STRENGTH: Offense, again. QB Brian Brohm put up huge numbers in the first 10 games, throwing for almost 2,900 yards and 19 touchdowns with five interceptions. RB Michael Bush is 250 pounds of thunder who racked up 1,143 yards and 23 touchdowns for a team that averaged 45.2 points per game.

WEAKNESS: Losing DE Elvis Dumervil to the NFL is huge. He had 20 sacks last year and caused chaos among opposing offensive lines. Without Dumervil, the Cardinals will have to figure out some way to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks because nobody else on the line was nearly as productive.

OUTLOOK: Louisville's offense is the kind that can light up just about anybody. And with only two tough games -- No. 12 Miami and No. 5 West Virginia -- a Big East title could be in the Cards.

___

No. 12: MIAMI (9-3)

STRENGTH: As always with the Hurricanes, speed all over the place. Miami has big-play guys sprinkled all over the place on both offense and defense, including RB Tyrone Moss, WR Ryan Moore and safeties Kenny Phillips and Brandon Meriweather.

WEAKNESS: Discipline. As if last year's Peach Bowl debacle wasn't bad enough -- 40-3 a loss LSU followed by a melee with the Tigers after the game -- the suspension of four players for the first game of the season has people wondering when Luther Campbell is going to start showing up on the sidelines again. Throw in the firing of six assistant coaches and the transfer of talented but troubled linebacker Willie Williams, and the offseason was more entertaining than "Miami Vice."

OUTLOOK: With Moore and Moss among those suspended for the season opener with No. 11 Florida State, the Canes could be in trouble right from the start. Miami always has talent, but last year's Peach Bowl performance and the off-field troubles could be tough to overcome.

___

No. 11: FLORIDA STATE (8-5)

STRENGTH: Florida State finally found a quarterback. After the Chris Rix disaster and the bizarre incident last year where Wyatt Sexton was taken to a hospital by police after acting erratically and identifying himself as "God" and "the son of God," Seminoles fans had to be wondering if the team would have anybody who could complete a forward pass. Drew Weatherford stepped in last year and threw for 3,200 yards and 18 touchdowns, but also had 18 interceptions.

WEAKNESS: The running game. Florida State averaged a paltry 99.7 yards per game on the ground last year. RB Lorenzo Booker is explosive, but wasn't used nearly enough last season.

OUTLOOK: If you can figure out this team, you're ahead of most. The Seminoles beat three ranked teams last year and lost to three unranked teams. There's loads of talent and the Seminoles only have four road games, so a return to the dominance of the 90s isn't out of the question. But given how up and down the Noles have been the last few years, neither is another 8-5 season.

___

asap contributor Casey Laughman works in the AP's Columbus bureau.

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