Microsoft plans to launch its long-anticipated new operating system — called Windows Vista — on Jan. 30 after a series of delays, missing both the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

For Microsoft-watchers, it's reminiscent of the delays surrounding the launch of Windows 2000, leading some to ask why the software giant doesn't just switch to a more incremental and modular approach to updating its system, kind of like another company called, uh, Apple.

Others, though, say it's unreasonable to ask Microsoft to turn on a dime. After all, Windows powers most of the world's personal computers, and Vista will be the first major upgrade in more than five years.

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PAST AS PROLOGUE

Named Windows 2000 after the year it was released, it had been expected since 1998.

Part of the reason for the long delay back then was that Microsoft had wanted to replace the Windows file system with a real database — a change that wouldn't be noticeable to the average user but would offer a more advanced way to store and access data, says Michael Silver, a research vice president at Gartner Inc.

Oddly enough, the same ambitious redesign is partly behind Vista's delays — and again the database system has been scrapped, for now, he says.

"I think you have to look at the complexity of the operating system as a whole, and that's really the issue that Microsoft has had and why it has been five years since a new release," he says.

"Microsoft was trying to do too much. They ended up realizing that Windows was way more complicated than they could really manage. And, they ended up two years ago — in summer 2004 — doing what's known as a reset, where they basically started over and said: OK, we need to come up with a simpler way to design this thing."

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PRACTICAL EFFECTS

Will Vista be worth the wait? "We've been seeing beta versions for a really long time, and as you know the dates have kept moving. But, it's highly anticipated," says Ann Westerheim, president of Ekaru LLC, an information technology services company based in Westford, Mass.

Vista will be released to licensees, computer manufacturers and other big business clients on Nov. 30, with Jan. 30 now set as the consumer launch. Microsoft is offering holiday shoppers coupons good for a free or discounted Vista upgrade in the new year if they buy a system now.

Vista boasts better graphics, a new Internet browser, more effective search tools and other improvements.

"Given the monumental task, it's expected that it'd be delayed," Westerheim says. "But, I think a lot of people also feel that Microsoft announces dates that are too optimistic and then keeps people waiting."

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STEP BY STEP

Some say Microsoft should take a more incremental approach, instead of waiting years between major launches and building anticipation that is then dashed.

"Apple has been working much more incrementally," Silver says. "They've brought out new features for their OS very incrementally, at around an 18-month clip. Microsoft is more into doing these really huge releases that make a ton of changes."

The various upgrades to Windows XP, first released in 2001, shows that a step-by-step approach can work, he adds.

"Things have gotten a bit more modular, but we think things really have to get a lot more modular for Microsoft to be able to replace pieces very easily without one piece depending on the next."

But, Westerheim questions whether that would be practical. "I think that would be complicated in an enterprise or even across business," she says. "You want to try to keep everybody at the same level just to manage the IT a little easier."

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ENGINEERS VS. MARKETERS

While marketers might want new product on store shelves for the holidays, engineers need to be sure the system is secure and stable before it ships.

"Software is ready when it's ready and not before," says Roger Thompson, chief technical officer at Exploit Prevention Labs in Atlanta.

"It's not easy to build a major product like this, and I think Microsoft is probably the best company in the world at doing large-scale development like that. They write huge amounts of code," he says.

He also questions whether Microsoft can go modular. "I don't think it applies. They've made service pack releases. They've done incremental releases to XP. But what they've tried to do with Vista is create a much more secure operating system. So, this couldn't be an incremental release. This will be virtually a rewrite."

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Stephanie Hoo is asap's business writer.

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